The GOAT International Football Team
The Elo Rating system has been more accurate than the FIFA Rankings for almost 30 years
When wanting to view international football teams ranked, I've preferred the World Football Elo Ratings to FIFA's official ranking for almost 30 years now. FIFA have seen several inferior iterations of their own ranking system come and go. Finally, in 2018 they admitted defeat and based their own system on the Elo method, a beautiful model designed by Hungarian Mathemetician Arpad Elo. Despite this, The FIFA Rankings are still inferior to the World Football Elo Ratings system as FIFA's version doesn't account for home and away differences, nor the margin of victory. FIFA also, stupidly, awards victories to a team for winning a penalty shootout. The World Footbal Elo Ratings takes into account every international football match between nations since Scotland drew nil all with England on 30 November 1872.
The World Football Elo Rating also includes games between nations that are not officially recognised by FIFA, such as Vatican City, and there is far more accuracy in determining the difference in quality between the worst teams in the world. For example, FIFA currently ranks San Marino the worst team in the world at 211th out of 211 teams, but on the Elo Ratings they are a much more accurate 210th out of 239 teams. Teams ranked far below them include teams that are officially recognised by FIFA such as American Samoa (named Eastern Samoa on the Elo Ratings). Since San Marino have only ever played much stronger European opponents they have never had the opportunity to win matches as American Samoa have. But, trust me, they'd easily beat American Samoa.
So who is currently on top of the Elo Ratings?
Currently, Brazil sits atop the ratings with an Elo score of 2169. In fact, this score means this Brazil side is currently the 7th best team in history. What's more, a successful World Cup would almost certainly see them become one of the three or four best teams in history. A big result along the way against another highly rated nation may even see them the highest rated team in history.
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| Elo Ratings as at 18 November 2022 |
So, which international team was the greatest in history?
For this analysis, I decided to only look at teams who rated higher than 2100. Reaching 2100 Elo Rating is a significant milestone that has only happened 50 times thus far in the 150 years of international football. Here is a list of all the international teams that have achieved this milestone. No doubt the GOAT is among this list.
Scotland March 1887
England September 1908 to September 1914
Uruguay June 1928
Argentina July 1930
Italy June 1938 to November 1939
Argentina March 1940
Argentina March 1941 to January 1942
Argentina December 1947
Argentina May 1948
Hungary May 1953 to May 1956
Argentina March 1955 to February 1956
Hungary October 1956 to September 1957
Argentina April 1957 to June 1957
Brazil June 1958 to December 1959
Brazil June 1962 to March 1963
Brazil June 1970 to June 1974
West Germany June 1972 March 1975
West Germany September 1975
West Germany June 1976 to April 1978
Netherlands June 1978
Brazil June 1978 to August 1979
West Germany June 1980 to December 1980
West Germany October 1981 to July 1982
Brazil July 1982 to July 1983
Brazil July 1995 to August 1995
Brazil December 1995 to January 1996
Brazil June 1997 to February 1998
Brazil March 1998
Brazil June 1998
Brazil July 1999 to August 1999
France June 2000 to April 2002
Spain February 2009 to June 2009
Brazil June 2009 to October 2009
Brazil November 2009 to June 2010
Spain March 2010 to June 2014
Netherlands July 2010
Netherlands October 2010 to September 2011
Brazil June 2013 to July 2014
Netherlands June 2014 to September 2014
Germany June 2014 to September 2015
Argentina June 2016 to September 2016
Brazil March 2017 to September 2019
Germany September 2017 to March 2018
France September 2018 to October 2018
Belgium September 2020 to October 2020
Belgium November 2020 to September 2021
Brazil October 2020 to Current
France June 2021
France October 2021 to March 2021
Argentina November 2021 to current
Among this lot, the England team between 1908 and 1914 achieved the longest reign over 2100 Elo Rating at six years. One caveat to this though is that this was back when continental European teams were only beginning to play the game and the Home Nations were regularly defeating these sides by results that you'd expect more from a game of rugby union, so forgive me England fans if I don't consider this England team as being the greatest of all time.
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| England Amateurs at the 1912 Olympics. England dominated world football between 1908 and 1914. |
The World Football Elo Ratings also include the peformance of the "United Kingdom" football team at the 1908, 1912 and 1920 Olympics as England. This is perhaps fair enough considering every player on the team in 1912 was in fact English, but sources variously list the team as "Great Britain", "United Kingdom", "Great Britain and Ireland", "England Amateurs" or "The English team". It should be noted though that the players who featured in the Olympics were only amateurs and not the professionals who represented England at the British Home Championships.
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| The mighty England side of 1908 to 1914 regularly stuck it to the likes of France and Netherlands with rugby scores. |
Apart from that England team, the side with the longest reign above 2100 was the Spain side of between June 2010 and September 2014, a total of 51 months over an Elo Rating of 2100. During this period this team won both the 2010 World Cup and the 2012 European Championships, having previously won the 2008 European Chamionships. Under the tutelage of Vicente Del Bosque with a side largely based on the style of perhaps the greatest ever club team - Pep Guardiola's FC Barcelona, Spain were utterly dominant during this period with their famous tika-taka style of play which took possession football to levels never previously seen before in the World Game. Xavi, Iniesta, Villa, Torres, Busquests, Pique, Puyol, Alonso, Ramos, Silva, Fabregas, Mata, Casillas, Alba, Cazorla, Pedro, Capedevila, Albiol were just some of the names that made this side great.
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| Apart from the pre Great War England team, Spain 2010 to 2014 has the longest reign over 2100. |
Del Bosque's Spain narrowly edged out the Brazil side who reigned over 2100 for 48 months between June 1970 and June 1974. This Brazil side is considered by many to be the greatest ever, their 1970 World Cup victory in Mexico often pointed to as the pinnacle of what can be achieved in the world game. With the likes of Pele, Jairzinho, Tostao, Rivelinho and Carlos Alberto, this Brazil side dazzled the world with their attacking football, thrashing the normally, reslolute in defence Italy, 4-1 in the final.
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| Brazil 1970. Believed by many to be the greatest international team ever. |
Despite their years of dominance, the Spain side of 2010 to 2014 and the Brazil side of 1970 to 1974 have both been eclipsed by other sides whose peak Elo Rating was higher. Perhaps we can find the greatest ever international football team by analysing which side has had the highest ever rating, even if it was more fleeting than the reigns of the aforementioned Spain and Brazil sides. Only 14 international teams have ever achieved a rating of 2150 or higher. For this analyis we will only look at the top 10.
The Top Ten International Football Teams of All Time According to Peak Elo Rating
#10. Brazil Elo Rating: 2163 5 December 1959.
This Brazil side featured a 17 year-old Pele who scored two goals as Brazil thrashed home nation Sweden 5-2 in the final of the 1958 World Cup, tournament that some consider to be the first real World Cup as it was the first tournament in which all the world's top rated sides were participating. They continued above the 2100 mark until they themselves were thrashed 3-0 by Uruguay in Ecuador in that year's Copa America.
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| The 1958 World Cup winning Brazil side. |
#9. Brazil Elo Rating: 2164. 2 July 1982.
Argubly the most attractive football team to ever play the game, the 1982 Brazil side managed to reach an Elo Rating of 2164, before perhaps undeservedly succumbing to an Italy team 3-2 that went on to win that year's World Cup. Perhaps the greatest injustice in football was this side never winning anything. The highlights reel from their performance at that year's World Cup is incredible with nearly all goals being worldies. This is not to mention the breathtaking skills the members of this team regularly put on display for the pure joy of it. The first touches, the constant movement, the running into space it was attack, attack, attack. In my personal view, the most entertaining side in history. Despite not winning anything, nobody will ever forget the likes of Zico, Socrates, Falcao, Eder, Serginho and Junior.
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| Brazil 1982. Were they the most attractive side ever? |
#8 Spain Elo Rating: 2165. Twice: 11 July 2010 and 23 June 2013.
See above (2nd highest reign over 2100 after England 1908 to 1914).
Spain's 1-0 World Cup Final victory over the Netherlands on 11 July 2010 pushed them to their equal highest ever Elo Rating. This side utterly dominated possession, so much so that they managed to win the world's major competition while scoring only 8 goals as teams were so utterly defensive against them. They reached their peak score again during the 2013 Confederations Cup after a 3-0 victory over Nigeria. However, their 3-0 final loss to Brazil in the final of that tournament and their subsequent 5-1 losses to the Netherlands and 2-0 loss to Chile at the following year's World Cup meant the loss of their above 2100 status until the present day.
#7 Brazil Elo Rating: 2169, 19 November 2022 (current).
It is perhaps suprising to see the current Brazil side with a superior Elo Rating to that of Spain's great side of 2010 to 2014 when you consider that Tite's team have not won anything as yet. However, they have been pretty darn consistent over the last two years. The only real blot on their jotter has been losing the Copa America final at an empty Maracana to Lionel Messi inspired Argentina in 2021. They won 14 of their 17 games in qualifying though, drawing the other three in what has been perhaps the most impressive qualifying campaign for the World Cup by any team ever. Despite this, they have failed as yet to have the wood on Argentina in two previous meetings, so a potential semi-final meeting in the upcoming World Cup may well be their sternest test yet.
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| Can Tite's Brazil become the greatest side in history? |
Perhaps the best Brazil team we've seen since Ronahldinho, Robert Carlos, Ronaldo, Romario and Rivaldo graced their lineup, Tite's side are strong in all areas of the pitch. With Neymar, Gabriel Jesus, Antony, Lucas Paqueta, Casemiro, Fred, Tiago Silva, Marquinhos, Alex Telles and Alison likely to keep the likes of Richarlison, Vinicius Junior, Raphinha, Rodrygo, Martinelli, Fabinho, Bruno Guimaraes, Eder Militao, Alex Sandro and Ederson out of the side, Brazil's strength in depth is readily apparent. Going into this tournament with a very high Elo Rating of 2169 means a winning tournament for Brazil could potentially see them reach the highest rating of all time. Perhaps Serbia and Switzerland will have something to say about that.
#6 Brazil, Elo Rating: 2177, 4 October 1970.
See above (3rd highest reign over 2100 after England 1908 to 1914 and Spain 2010 to 2014).
The 1970 Brazil side mentioned previously peaked with a rating of 2177 on 4 October 1970 after a 5-1 away friendly victory over Chile followed up their astonishing 4-1 thrashing of Italy in the World Cup Final.
#5 Brazil, Elo Rating: 2178, 21 December 1997.
Surprising to some, but the Brazil team of 1997 to 1999 were actually a much more dominant outfit than the team that eventually won the World Cup in 2002. They peaked in December 1997 after thrashing Australia 6-0 in the final of the Confederations Cup in France (despite having drawn 0-0 with the same side in the group stage). The team in the final featured the likes of Ronaldo Fenomeno, Romario, Denilson, Dunga, Juhninho, Roberto Carlos and Cafu. It is perhaps forgotten that this team was highly fancied to win the 1998 World Cup Final away to France, but were overshawdoed by a young Zinedine Zidane.
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| 1997 Brazil. Arguably a better side than the 2002 World Cup winning team. |
#4 Brazil, Elo Rating: 2193, 17 June 1962.
The highest Elo Rating Brazil has ever achieved though came when a Peleless Brazil won the 1962 World Cup final 3-1 in Chile against a Josef Masopust led Czeckhoslovakia, the second ranked side in the world. This time Brazil's star was Garrincha as Pele had to watch from the sidelines having suffered an injury earlier in the tournament. Honourable mentions must also go to Vava and Amarildo as this Brazil team rained in goals in the knockout stages.
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| 1962 Brazil World Cup winning side. |
#3 England, Elo Rating: 2212, 4 July 1912.
See above (highest reign over 2100 at six years).
The England team of 1908 to 1914 which dominated world football peaked at 2212 after they defeated Belgium 4-0 in a friendly game on 9 November 1912. This game came 4 months after the tournament that contributed most to their high rating though when the United Kingdom team of English amateurs defeated Denmark 4-2 in the final of the Olympics football tournament in Sweden. All the teams at the tournament bar England were using their professional players, and Denmark were ranked second in the world at the time, so it was no small feat for England to defeat them. Before that tournament they had peaked at 2151 after a 2-1 victory over Belgium. If nothing else, their high score of 2212 is simply a reflection of how much this team dominated the rest of the world at the time. The team were knocked off their perch though when they were unexpectedly defeated by Ireland 2-1 in Belfast on 15 February 1913.
#2 Germany, Elo Rating: 2223, 13 July 2014.
Perhaps some will be suprised to see the 2014 World Cup winning German team come in second on this list. Their 1-0 victory over Argentina was the culmination of a brilliant campaign in which Germany showed themselves to be the best team at the tournament after a dominant qualifying campaign by Joachim Low's men. While their reign over 2100 was brief their massive 1-7 away victory over hosts Brazil, one of the most shocking games in world history, significantly boosted their rating by 81.
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| The 2014 World Cup winning Germany team. |
#1 Hungary, Elo Rating: 2232, 13 July 1954.
Perhaps the most dominant team in world football to date, despite never winning the World Cup, were the Hungary side between 1952 and 1956. They won the Olympics in 1952, and the Central European Championships in 1953. After the 1908-1914 England team, the 2010-2014 Spain team, and the 1970-1974 Brazil side, this Hungary team has had the longest reign above 2100, as it spent three years above this milestone between 1953 and 1956. However, their major achievement was reaching the highest ever recorded Elo Rating of 2232 after a string of ridiculous results at the 1954 World Cup.
Including the likes of Ferenc Puskas, Sandor Koscis, Nandor Hidegkuti, Peter Palotas, Mihaly Lantos, Jozsef Bozsik, Gyula Grosics and Zoltan Czibor, the entire 1954 Hungary World Cup squad plied their trade in the Hungarian top flight at the time, and the Hungarians reinvented football for everybody else during this period. Seen by many to be the original purveyors of Total Football, the side inflicted upon England their first ever loss at Wembley by thrashing them 3-6 in 1953, then beat England 7-1 at home in a friendly in Budapest just before the World Cup (a record that still stands today as England's biggest ever loss), before scoring an astonishing 27 goals in the 1954 tournament in Switzerland (another record that still stands to this day). This feat included ridiculous results such as a 9-0 win over South Korea, an 8-3 victory over the 6th ranked team in the world West Germany, a 4-2 victory over the world's 3rd ranked side Brazil, another 4-2 victory over the new world's 3rd ranked side Uruguay in the semi-finals, before ASTONISHINGLY losing the final to West Germany 3-2 in the final after being 2-0 up! The result was controversial with Hungary hitting the woodwork on numerous occasions and Puskas having a legitimate goal unfairly ruled out in the 86th minute by a mistaken Welsh linesmen.
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| Hungary 1953 to 1956. The greatest ever? |
Very nice work and write up. Should say Spain being a Spaniard but I’ll take Brazil’s 82 squad as the best, or at least my favorite one. Hardly seen any footage of that Hungary squad but they for sure where a world apart but oh those Germans…
ReplyDeleteThanks for your comment Leo!
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